It is doubtful that for all their bluster the North Korean
leadership really wants a war with the United States and its southern
neighbour. Leader, Kim Jong-un is more accustomed to cognac than combat and
knows that any war with the United States will only end in the destruction of
his regime and likely the death of him and much of his family
North Korea is a family business and for over the past two decades that business has been intimidation and extortion. Any war with the West would liquidate the family holdings. That being said there is no guarantee they won't go a nuclear or missile test too far and force a response from the United States, Japan or South Korea. An errant missile landing in a Japanese city or a near miss off the US mainland could be all it takes to force a response.
Donald Trump's tough talk has received a lot of reaction from a largely unsympathetic press in the West, but to be fair Trump was handed a time bomb by his past three predecessors who either ignored or were too preoccupied to squarely face the North Korean threat. In the 1990's then President Bill Clinton openly contemplated a strike on the North if they proceeded with a nuclear weapons program; but decided a war at that time would cost too many US Military and South Korean civilian casualties to justify the risk. Instead they paid off the north with billions of dollars, and, to no one's surprise North Korea called Clinton's bluff and went ahead with their nuclear program anyway.
There are no good options in this for either side. Kim Jong-un, is many things, but not crazy. He knows that a war will end his family dynasty/business and he's seen what happened to dictators who were deposed in Libya and Iraq. He has no desire to be the next Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein. A nuclear arsenal in his mind is his safeguard against such a fate.
North Korea is a family business and for over the past two decades that business has been intimidation and extortion. Any war with the West would liquidate the family holdings. That being said there is no guarantee they won't go a nuclear or missile test too far and force a response from the United States, Japan or South Korea. An errant missile landing in a Japanese city or a near miss off the US mainland could be all it takes to force a response.
Donald Trump's tough talk has received a lot of reaction from a largely unsympathetic press in the West, but to be fair Trump was handed a time bomb by his past three predecessors who either ignored or were too preoccupied to squarely face the North Korean threat. In the 1990's then President Bill Clinton openly contemplated a strike on the North if they proceeded with a nuclear weapons program; but decided a war at that time would cost too many US Military and South Korean civilian casualties to justify the risk. Instead they paid off the north with billions of dollars, and, to no one's surprise North Korea called Clinton's bluff and went ahead with their nuclear program anyway.
There are no good options in this for either side. Kim Jong-un, is many things, but not crazy. He knows that a war will end his family dynasty/business and he's seen what happened to dictators who were deposed in Libya and Iraq. He has no desire to be the next Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein. A nuclear arsenal in his mind is his safeguard against such a fate.
The question in the near future
is can any American President, be they Donald Trump or his successor tolerate a
nuclear armed North Korea that has the ability to successfully target the
continental United States. My guess is probably not; and were it not for the
very real risk of a larger nuclear conflict with China, United States, Japan
and South Korea would be more actively beating the war drum.
It's the great Korean Quandary, no one wants war, but the longer things carry on down the current path it seems that everyone will get something that nobody wants. One test too far, or a botched missile launch that goes astray, and like the hapless character in the old Looney Tunes cartoons, we are one misstep away from Willie E Coyoteíng our way to war.
It's the great Korean Quandary, no one wants war, but the longer things carry on down the current path it seems that everyone will get something that nobody wants. One test too far, or a botched missile launch that goes astray, and like the hapless character in the old Looney Tunes cartoons, we are one misstep away from Willie E Coyoteíng our way to war.
